I think what is happening is that Ukraine believes that signing the deal will result in a range of outcomes from neutral to positive, depending how and when the US renegs on their side of it. But without the deal the outcomes range from neutral to very negative, so making the deal is the clear right move even if you believe it won’t do anything.

Sorry but 2 posts in the last week can hardly be considered quite active.

So you have three options, all having a bad outcome on the most important thing you care about.

One of the options maybe has better outcomes on some other things you care about.

Another option has bad outcomes in almost everything you care about, plus maybe even a worse outcome to your most important thing.

The third option is to leave it up everyone else to pick between the first two.

I know what I’d pick, what will you do?