Fine. Unless we have access to a crystal ball, I’m fairly comfortable in reiterating we can not know what would happen; a few educated guesses, certainly, but knowing, no.

Afterall, it took a lawyer, turned actor, turned politian to have Ukraine peel off from the heavy russian influence over the country which eventually led to the ongoing conflict, as Russia lost the heavy influence it had over what was essentially a puppet state, akin to Belarus.

Had Ukraine retained their nuclear armament - which, of memory serve me well, was disbanded in order to reach a peace agreement for the region, as Russia considered the presence of such weapons a threat - maybe it had become another rogue state just like Belarus is today.

Can we know? No.