This is an interesting take, especially coming from a non-gaming focused tech website like Ars Technica. I feel like it’s been too long since people were truly hyped about half life 3 though, and this wouldn’t be enough, even if Valve did go through with it.
People are increasingly unhappy with windows though, and the EoL of windows 10 may push people to Linux anyways.
back when they were trying to do steam machines, i was saying that’s what they needed. even if it was just a limited time exclusive, like hl3 comes out on linux in june, and on windows in december, it could’ve done a lot to solidify their os and hardware scheme. now though? idk if there’s enough hype remaining around the idea of hl3, and steamOS is already a success due to handhelds, and proton has made it way more appealing to do games from linux in general, so i don’t think it’d be so dramatic of an effect, and they’d probably lose out on sales to people who’re really into windows.
all that said, exclusives are usually the deciding factor when choosing between systems. linux has never really had a ‘killer app’. nobody wants to develop a program exclusively for linux because of its small market share, and it stays at a small market share because its competitors have important exclusives that folks can’t bear to go without.