Head of Ukraine’s national foreign intelligence service – “We have studied…the strengths and weaknesses of the enemy. We are aware of Russia’s long-term plans…at least until 2030.”
The main, possibly only, glimmer of hope in the article was “assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages,” and Russia is drafting 100,000 fewer men than last year. That seems well short of “starting to win,” unfortunately. Ukraine also appears to be losing 1/3 of their military support if what Zelensky said in the article is true. Did I miss something?
The Russia was able to barely retain the size of its forces when its losses were 800 to 1200 per day. Now they are 1300 to 1900 per day, and its ability to recruit new troops has not risen and it seems it may have even decreased.
That means, the size of the Russian armed forces is decreasing by 500 to 700 soldiers each day! In a year that makes 180 000 to 255 000 soldiers per year.
When their army shrinks in size with about 200 000 soldiers per year, they’re very soon going to have plenty of “fun” trying to defend all of their front.
From Ukraine reclaiming their territory starting probably around summer 2026 or late winter 2026. The Russia won’t be able to stop that if they don’t have troops.
Regarding how the Ukrainian army is doing… That’s a broad question. But, put shortly: they have managed to mostly hold back a Russian invasion for 11 years now. Especially the last 3 years it has been faring far over expectations. If you haven’t heard of it, here’s a wikipedia article about it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War . It’s high time you get acquainted with this theme now in 2025!
"The problem that Ukraine is facing is not that they are running out of money, [it] is that they are running out of Ukrainians,” U.S. `Secretary of State Marco Rubio said during his confirmation hearing.
My opinion: They’re not going to win. Also it’s disingenuous to say they’ve been holding back a Russian invasion for 11 years.
Marco Rubio is in Trump’s administration. Nothing that comes from there should be assumed true.
They are not running out of Ukrainians. They will have enough of them for another 1300 years with this pace of losses. Also the Russia isn’t running out of Russians for several centuries at this pace.
What is happening, however, is that the Russia is losing soldiers faster than it can recruit new ones.
They’ve run out of youthful soliders and are drafting older men now.
Second, I’d imagine the pace of losses would accelerate once Ukraine started drafting the elderly and children, but it won’t come to that. Also a lot of Ukrainians have already left to dodge the draft.
Lastly, why are we even piddling about troop numbers? They seem insignificant given the larger problems Ukraine is facing. Let’s circle back to my original points.
The main, possibly only, glimmer of hope in the article was “assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages,” and Russia is drafting 100,000 fewer men than last year. That seems well short of “starting to win,” unfortunately. Ukraine also appears to be losing 1/3 of their military support if what Zelensky said in the article is true.
Russia is fighting a war of choice but is continuing on with callous disregard for it’s own troops. Their arms production is slowing down but so are their drafting efforts. North Korea is providing artillary shells and rockets. Ukraine is losing 1/3 of its military support and its army is aging. Unless they figure out how to fight in a new way that restores their ability to maneuver, then all they can hope for is a negotiated settlement.
So, are they already taking Crimea back, after regaining Luhansk and Donetsk? Because that’s what “starting to win” means. Oh, the kyivpost…
In what world is “total victory” equivalent to “starting to win”?
The main, possibly only, glimmer of hope in the article was “assets in and outside Russia had strong evidence that Russian arms production during 2025 has flatlined and is likely to contract, because of parts and labor shortages,” and Russia is drafting 100,000 fewer men than last year. That seems well short of “starting to win,” unfortunately. Ukraine also appears to be losing 1/3 of their military support if what Zelensky said in the article is true. Did I miss something?
The Russia was able to barely retain the size of its forces when its losses were 800 to 1200 per day. Now they are 1300 to 1900 per day, and its ability to recruit new troops has not risen and it seems it may have even decreased.
That means, the size of the Russian armed forces is decreasing by 500 to 700 soldiers each day! In a year that makes 180 000 to 255 000 soldiers per year. When their army shrinks in size with about 200 000 soldiers per year, they’re very soon going to have plenty of “fun” trying to defend all of their front.
Defend their front from what? How is Ukraine’s army doing?
From Ukraine reclaiming their territory starting probably around summer 2026 or late winter 2026. The Russia won’t be able to stop that if they don’t have troops.
Regarding how the Ukrainian army is doing… That’s a broad question. But, put shortly: they have managed to mostly hold back a Russian invasion for 11 years now. Especially the last 3 years it has been faring far over expectations. If you haven’t heard of it, here’s a wikipedia article about it: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russo-Ukrainian_War . It’s high time you get acquainted with this theme now in 2025!
Here I have a source too, one that’s a bit more specific: https://www.politico.eu/article/ukraine-army-war-attrition/
Relevant quote:
My opinion: They’re not going to win. Also it’s disingenuous to say they’ve been holding back a Russian invasion for 11 years.
Marco Rubio is in Trump’s administration. Nothing that comes from there should be assumed true.
They are not running out of Ukrainians. They will have enough of them for another 1300 years with this pace of losses. Also the Russia isn’t running out of Russians for several centuries at this pace.
What is happening, however, is that the Russia is losing soldiers faster than it can recruit new ones.
First, Rubio is parroting a wildly accepted fact. https://www.pravda.com.ua/eng/articles/2024/05/16/7455980/
They’ve run out of youthful soliders and are drafting older men now.
Second, I’d imagine the pace of losses would accelerate once Ukraine started drafting the elderly and children, but it won’t come to that. Also a lot of Ukrainians have already left to dodge the draft.
Lastly, why are we even piddling about troop numbers? They seem insignificant given the larger problems Ukraine is facing. Let’s circle back to my original points.
Russia is fighting a war of choice but is continuing on with callous disregard for it’s own troops. Their arms production is slowing down but so are their drafting efforts. North Korea is providing artillary shells and rockets. Ukraine is losing 1/3 of its military support and its army is aging. Unless they figure out how to fight in a new way that restores their ability to maneuver, then all they can hope for is a negotiated settlement.