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- cross-posted to:
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geteilt von: https://feddit.org/post/8357814
The left side of the graph shows the results, the right side shows possible coalitions
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Can someone please explain this for a non-German. I know there was a large concern with the AfD, but what do the results mean so far?
Germany will probably get a centrist-right (CDU/CSU) government with a centrist-left junior partner (SPD).
Centrist-right is far left in US terms.I expect stagnancy in German politics for the next 4 years. -_-
As a foreigner in Germany, CDU is not centrist at all. Maybe you should consider how your definition of “center” changed in the last years. CDU is a right wing party, CSU even more, leaning into populist views, Afd is extremist.
I wish SPD was left. Most of its policies of the last years were pretty much the same as right wing parties.
CDU was always center-right and SPD center-left. In the last years SPD slowly drifted to center. Some still consider them center-left.
You should check on the definition of extremist. The AfD ist far-right, yes, but not extremist (yet).
Wir sollten eine SA gründen und aufräumen!“ – Andreas Geithe, AfD
We should form an SA and clean up!’ - Andreas Geithe, AfD
Immerhin haben wir jetzt so viele Ausländer im Land, dass sich ein Holocaust mal wieder lohnen würde.“ – Chatprotokoll Marcel Grauf
After all, we now have so many foreigners in the country that a Holocaust would be worthwhile again.’ - Chat protocol Marcel Grauf
Ich würde niemanden verurteilen, der ein bewohntes Asylantenheim anzündet. Ich würde mir so sehr einen Bürgerkrieg von Millionen Toten - Frauen, Kindern, mir egal - wünschen, Hauptsache es geht los. Insbesondere würde ich laut lachen, wenn so etwas auf der Gegendemo passieren würde. Tote, Verkrüppelte, es wäre so schön. Ich will auf Leichen pissen und auf Gräbern tanzen. Sieg Heil!“ (Marcel Grauf, AfD) Marcel Grauf ist Mitarbeiter der AfD-Abgeordneten Christina Baum und dem AfD-Politiker Heiner Merz.
I wouldn’t condemn anyone who sets fire to an inhabited asylum centre. I would so much like to see a civil war of millions of dead - women, children, I don’t care - the main thing is that it starts. I would especially laugh out loud if something like that happened at the counter-demonstration. Dead people, crippled people, it would be so nice. I want to piss on corpses and dance on graves. Sieg Heil!’ (Marcel Grauf, AfD)
Marcel Grauf is an employee of AfD MP Christina Baum and AfD politician Heiner Merz.
Abschiebung der Antifa nach Buchenwald“ – Mirko Welsch, AfD Mirko Welsch war der Bundessprecher der Homosexuellen in der AfD
Deportation of the Antifa to Buchenwald’ - Mirko Welsch, AfD Mirko Welsch was the federal spokesperson for homosexuals in the AfD
Es ist richtig, Menschen mit schwarzer Hautfarbe auch weiterhin N**** zu nennen.“ –Thomas Seitz, AfD
It is right to continue calling people with black skin colour N****.’ -Thomas Seitz, AfD
Nothing to see here folks. Defenitly NOT an extremist political party. Move along now!!!
It would be extremist if they do that instead of just telling what they would like to do. Trump tells us he wants to annex Canada and Greenland. Does that make him an extremist too?
Yes.
The CDU always has contained everything from centre-left to far-right, as long it’s compatible with democracy. Their right wing is about en par with Reagan, their left wing with, dunno, Harris, status quo liberals in general. They’re not about to abolish public healthcare, gutting unemployment benefits OTOH is up their alley. Social conservatism wise they tend to brake a lot, but aren’t prone to be regressive, like wanting to roll back gay rights or something. Or, differently put, they won’t be any more conservative the EKD which is absolutely fine with reverends having gay sex in the vicarage as long as it’s monogamous.
Socially they absolutely aim to turn back time. They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification and marijuana legalization for instance, and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric. Regardless of how much they may struggle to come up with excuses to legitimize it, this is what resonates with the people they’re courting right now - voters that abandoned them for AfD or at least are considering it.
They’ve promised to revoke gender self-identification
…no. And their opposition to the law wasn’t transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential, which is why the law that got passed says that name changes are transmitted to police etc. so they can figure out whether someone’s trying to escape justice that way. Queer community of course didn’t like that but it did insulate the whole thing against attacks from the right.
and marijuana legalization for instance
They won’t. Also they’d fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now. Fixing it, OTOH, forget it.
and they’re all in on xenophobic isolationist rhetoric
Hell they aren’t because SMEs aren’t. Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes. The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally. The whole economy of the whole east is up in arms about lacking workers and the AfD scaring away those they could get. They’re going to bury the topic as quickly as they can. That Netanjahu invitation might actually be exactly that: That’s giving the Springer press opportunity to forget about the whole xenophobia thing and instead focus on purported anti-semitism on the left. Because, *checks notes*, executing international arrest warrants is antisemitic. Expect candlelight vigils with pictures of sniped children, I’m confident Die Linke knows how to play that one, this isn’t about preventing the visit at all costs but exposing bigotry on the right. Did I already mention that Merz sucks at strategy?
And their opposition to the law wasn’t transphobic (in the strict sense) in the first place but regarded abuse potential,
Or maybe they just hide their transphobia behind a thin veil of reasonable-sounding, legal arguments.
and marijuana legalization for instance
They won’t.
They will use that topic for diversion in a pinch. It’s mostly meaningless to them, but they’ll happily jump at the chance to play off unemployed stoners against the hard-working middle class.
Also they’d fail before the constitutional court as outlawing it back then was not scrutinised by the same standards the constitutional court would apply now.
That’s genuinely somehing for a judge to decide. And it’s usually years before unconstitutional laws are revoked.
[xenophoobic rhetoric] Merz picked that up in a (stupid) attempt to get AfD votes.
Merz is also, genuinely, a bigot. In all possible respects: toward women, toward foreigners, toward gender and sexual minorities, towards non-Christians, …
And there are also all manner of attempts to divide non-Germans within Germany, one of these is:
- Good: “we paid for this person to come here and take care of that elderly lady”.
- Bad: “this person is now caring for an elderly lady, but they’re worthless because they came as a refugee originally, they need to go”
Don’t forget that all the rhetoric of the past 3 months, from the right-wing parties in particular, but also from SPD, and even the Greens with their “deportations to Afghanistan and Syria, sure, but only to a rational degree” ideas have already spooked people living here. We’re also bound to see right-wing attacks rise further.
Merz and CxU are also not paragons of rationality. Everybody knew, and they must have known that they would only strengthen the Afd if they went all in on “bad foreigners” as the primary campaign topic. Really, 100% predictable. But they did. They used a terror attack to start the discussion and executed just as Merz had wanted to for 20 years, in fact. And they indeed lost 4.5% since the polls in November and the election last weekend, much of it to Afd. Primo job!
The CDU is captured by lobby interests and the lobby wants immigrant workers. Loudly. Vocally.
One of the interests of that lobby is actually undercutting pay those employees. That’s significantly easier when your employees don’t know about their rights, when they’re not working legally, etc.
You mentioned SMEs. SMEs are not that important to CxU, even less to Merz. But they look good as figureheads, so they get some breadcrumbs, and lots of mentions in speeches. And they’re told to grow.
Hope it’ll stay closer to ARD’s exit poll, with FDP and BSW both under 5%. Grand coalition is the best we can reasonably get. It’ll be way more stable than any 3-party coalition and I think we really need a stable government capable of getting shit done these next few years.
Would it not be possible for a 3-party coalition to be perfectly stable? We’ve had many of those in the Netherlands that went just fine, I believe. Though I guess given the lack of a threshold, those parties might differ less than they do in Germany?
Possible maybe, but such a coalition would either involve the Greens, who are absolutely despised by parts of the Union to the point of Bavarian Minister-president Markus Söder declaring them their main enemy and ruling out any coalition, or the FDP, who sabotaged our previous government, caused its collapse and is thus hated by the SPD. The BSW is not a realistic coalition partner with its Pro-Russian stance. So any option for a 3-party coalition would likely result in a lot of conflict and chaos in my opinion. Chaos which the AfD can use to its benefit.
I kinda wondered about BSW though. They are left, they are anti-immigration and they are capable of pulling votes from AfD and Die Linke - the two parties that compete most with CDU/CSU and SPD, respectively.
So they could be quite a strategic partner.
They have repeatedly made it clear that for them to even consider a coalition, the other parties would have to agree to stop all support for Ukraine and make peace with Russia with a full normalisation of relations. Sarah Wagenknecht won’t budge on that, and that makes any coalition talks with them unfeasible for the other parties.
